// SYSTEM METHODOLOGY

Analytical Framework for the Strait of Hormuz Tactical Dashboard

01. FLOW (MBD)

Metric: Million Barrels Per Day

The flow rate is estimated using Draught Displacement Analysis. Instead of relying on reported cargo, we calculate the physical volume of oil submerged below the waterline.

MBD = (Σ(Current Draught - 9m) × 110,000) ÷ 1,000,000 × 0.2

02. 24H TRANSIT PLOT

Metric: Active Radar Persistence

This plot visualizes the movement of the Top 3 High-Value Targets currently in the theatre. The system caches coordinates every 2 minutes to build a breadcrumb trail, allowing users to visualize heading, maneuvering patterns, and chokepoint approach vectors.

03. TRANSIT BASELINE

Metric: Pre-Conflict Operational Capacity

System status (OPEN / DEGRADED / CLOSED) is determined by comparing current transiting vessels against a Historical Baseline of 100 concurrent vessels.

04. INTEL: NET QUALITY

Metric: Cloudflare NetFlows

Utilizes Cloudflare Radar's netflows API to track HTTP traffic volatility within Iran. A drop in this metric often precedes or correlates with regional kinetic activity or communication blackouts.

05. ENV: WEATHER

Metric: OpenWeather Telemetry

Real-time atmospheric conditions at the Musandam Peninsula. High wind speeds (>25 kn) or low visibility directly impact the "MBD Flow" by forcing tankers to increase distance or anchor outside the strait.

06. INTEL: SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

Metric: OSINT + News Sources

[ SENTIMENT SCORE ] Measures the emotional and rhetorical intensity of incoming media intelligence. Scores range from positive (+5) to negative (-5). In conflict monitoring, an aggressively falling negative score indicates active escalation, hostile deployment protocols, or direct threats being issued. [ Δ SPREAD MARGIN ] Calculates the structural divergence between U.S. and Iranian narrative velocities by tracking the absolute difference between their average sentiment profiles. • EQUILIBRIUM (< 0.50 Δ): Symmetrical volatility. Both actors are locked in an equal, synchronous escalatory cycle. • ASYNCHRONOUS (> 0.50 Δ): One faction is unilaterally driving theatre aggression and steering the operational narrative.

<< RETURN TO RADAR